Wall Street spent the week arguing with good news. Friday's US jobs report showed employers added 162,000 positions in August, triple what economists expected, the kind of number that should cheer markets. Instead it undercut hopes that the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, would keep cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, in its seventh month, sent oil sharply higher.
Equities. The S&P 500, the benchmark of America's 500 largest listed companies, ended the week almost flat, up 0.1%, while the Dow slipped 0.3%. The Nasdaq added 0.4%, helped by energy stocks. Europe's STOXX 600 fell 0.9% and Germany's DAX dropped about 2% as borrowing costs rose. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.3% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.7%, both driven by technology buying.
What it means. A market barely moving despite a jobs report beating forecasts threefold sounds contradictory, but it reflects a trade-off investors have leaned on for months: cheaper borrowing from Fed rate cuts supports share prices, and a labour market too healthy makes cuts less likely. Strong data got read as caution, not celebration.
Rates and credit. Government bond yields, what governments pay to borrow, climbed across developed markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield pushed toward 4.78%. Germany's 10-year Bund yield brushed a 15-year high near 3.40%, while France's 10-year OAT touched levels last seen in 2008, above 4.20%, as investors demanded a bigger premium for French fiscal uncertainty. Corporate credit stayed calm, with investment-grade spreads, the extra yield companies pay over government debt, near 78 basis points.
What it means. Rising yields mean an economy running hot, investors demanding more to hold government debt, or both, sharpened by doubts about French budget discipline. That bonds sold off while corporate credit stayed calm matters: investors are not worried about companies repaying debt, only about government borrowing needs.
Currencies. The dollar strengthened after Friday's data, pulling the euro down to around 1.1585 from a high near 1.1640 earlier in the week. The yen was the exception, surging more than 2% to one-month highs as the Bank of Japan signalled it may raise rates, while Sterling and the Swiss franc held steady.
What it means. Currencies move on interest rate expectations more than almost anything else, since higher rates attract capital seeking better returns. The dollar's strength is the currency-market version of the story playing out in stocks and bonds. The yen's rise cuts the other way, reflecting the Bank of Japan normalising policy after years of near-zero rates.
Commodities. Brent crude gained nearly 8% to close near USD 96 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rose almost 10% to around USD 91, on the resumed US-Iran strikes and fears for Middle East tanker traffic. Gold touched fresh highs above USD 4,500 an ounce before falling back roughly 2% on Friday as the stronger dollar made it less attractive. Copper rose for a tenth straight week, its longest streak since 1994, on tight supply and Chinese grid investment.
What it means. Oil's surge raises costs from airline tickets to home heating. Gold's dip despite rising tension suggests dollar strength is outweighing the usual safe-haven demand. Copper's climb is more structural: the world is building more electrical infrastructure than it has copper to supply cheaply.
The Week Ahead. US markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, compressing the week into four days built around data that will decide the Federal Reserve's next move: Thursday's Producer Price Index, what businesses pay before goods reach consumers, and Friday's Consumer Price Index, the last inflation reading before the Fed's 16 September meeting.
What it means. Investors will watch for a split: a headline pushed up by energy prices would be read as temporary, while a rise in core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, would be taken more seriously. The Fed is in its pre-meeting quiet period, so no officials will clarify their thinking, leaving markets to trade on the numbers alone.